I am prononuncing Mayor 911 as D.O.A. effective today. His strategy was to accept a few defeats in the early states comfortable in the knowledge that he would win NY, FL, CA, and do well in most of the states where he has campaigned for most of his supporters. Now it is looking like he may be swept in the early primary states and worst of all he has NO momentum.
He's done kids. This is going to be a Howard Dean-type implosion.
And while I'm at it, put a fork in Fred Thompson and John Edwards as well. Neither candidate has any momentum and both will see their suport vanish overnight after Iowa.
Now that support will redistribute itself in what may seem strange ways. Look for the McCain Zombie to rememege on the republican side and either take New Hampshire or run a strong second as Thompson, (in spite of the dreams of the GOP power brokers) was in essence, a leech of McCain supporters. With his lack of clothes being revealed in Iowa, McCain will probably get a second wind.
Remember kids, hard work does pay off. Look at Uncle John!
Edward's base is the liberal left of the party. They don't like Hillary because they see her for what she is, the left hand of the power elite. They prefer Edwards over Obama, but they are in the 40% of America that doesn't like Hillary. Look for Edwards' support to fall off a cliff after Iowa and Obama to be neck and neck with Hillary. Also don't be suprised to see political Vet Biden take some of the anti-hillary vote and make a strong case to be Biden's VP. Biden can be a very effective attack dog and his knowledge of foreign relations would erase many questions on an Obama ticket. Plus they see to genuinely like each other.
Friday, December 14, 2007
Monday, December 10, 2007
Hurricane Oprah sweeping Obama into office?
http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/09/oprah.obama/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7134895.stm
I think in general terms people don't really get how influential Oprah is. If I could name one person who's political touch could potentially swing an election, it is Oprah. With the right candidate, Winfrey could put them over the top as amuch as any religious powerbroker. Obama might be that candidate.
I say this only partially tongue-in-cheek, but a stirringly heartfelt endorsement like oprah is giving Obama may be second only to an endorsement by Jesus Christ himself.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7134895.stm
I think in general terms people don't really get how influential Oprah is. If I could name one person who's political touch could potentially swing an election, it is Oprah. With the right candidate, Winfrey could put them over the top as amuch as any religious powerbroker. Obama might be that candidate.
I say this only partially tongue-in-cheek, but a stirringly heartfelt endorsement like oprah is giving Obama may be second only to an endorsement by Jesus Christ himself.
Friday, November 9, 2007
Hardball political power rankings are just nuts.
their rankings:
1) Hil Clinton
2) Barak Obama
3) Mayor 9/11
4) John Edwards
5) Mitt Romney
6) John McCain
7) Fred Thompson
8) Mike Huckabee
9) Richardson
10)Biden/Dodd
I can only speculate that they based those rankings off the "candidate vs. candidate" polls --- IMO a very flawed bit of polling as it doesn't take into account the realities of the electoral college. I think you really have to put these candidates in order by political juice --- share of the current audience, how solid it appears to be, and what kind of momentum potential they seem to have.
Politico's political "Juice" rankings:
1) Hil Clinton --- The frontrunner by 7-20% in all primaries.
2) Mitt Romney --- Could double Guliani in Iowa riding it into the GOP frontrunner position.
3) Mayor 9/11 --- Current GOP frontrunner, but IMO a very soft front runner. Under fire from Biden and beset by scandals; could finish 4th in Iowa and implode.
4) Barak Obama --- 20% of the vote is nothing to sneeze at, but has no idea how to attack and opponent. Dead in the water.
5) John McCain --- Everytime I want to throw dirt on McCain's grave he gets another endorsement. If Thompson implodes or quits before the election, the McCain Zombie could come out of nowhere to steal the nomination.
6) Mike Huckabee --- He may be topped out, but 12% is a heck of an accomplishment with no one giving him money. That is a very solid 12%. He owns the religious and gun nut vote.
7) John Edwards --- I do not think he is a real candidate. I think he is campaigning hard, but again the message is good, but I think a lot of people doubt the messenger.
8) Fred Thompson --- Slowly bleeding candidates. I think he has a very soft 17%. He could lose large chunks of his support in the next 2 months as his followers realize he has no forward momentum and they could get squeezed out of the ear of the incoming president.
9) Richardson --- The only reason I don't have richardson 10th is because I have a feeling he has sewn up the VP job for Hillary. His polling numbers have slid as it became apparent to his supporters that he wasn't going to crack the big 3.
10)Biden -- Biden is gaining momentum, but the big 3 are too settled in as frontrunners in the minds of national Dems. I would guess that if they held all of the primaries today he MIGHT finish 4th. There is no question he is miles ahead of Dodd.
1) Hil Clinton
2) Barak Obama
3) Mayor 9/11
4) John Edwards
5) Mitt Romney
6) John McCain
7) Fred Thompson
8) Mike Huckabee
9) Richardson
10)Biden/Dodd
I can only speculate that they based those rankings off the "candidate vs. candidate" polls --- IMO a very flawed bit of polling as it doesn't take into account the realities of the electoral college. I think you really have to put these candidates in order by political juice --- share of the current audience, how solid it appears to be, and what kind of momentum potential they seem to have.
Politico's political "Juice" rankings:
1) Hil Clinton --- The frontrunner by 7-20% in all primaries.
2) Mitt Romney --- Could double Guliani in Iowa riding it into the GOP frontrunner position.
3) Mayor 9/11 --- Current GOP frontrunner, but IMO a very soft front runner. Under fire from Biden and beset by scandals; could finish 4th in Iowa and implode.
4) Barak Obama --- 20% of the vote is nothing to sneeze at, but has no idea how to attack and opponent. Dead in the water.
5) John McCain --- Everytime I want to throw dirt on McCain's grave he gets another endorsement. If Thompson implodes or quits before the election, the McCain Zombie could come out of nowhere to steal the nomination.
6) Mike Huckabee --- He may be topped out, but 12% is a heck of an accomplishment with no one giving him money. That is a very solid 12%. He owns the religious and gun nut vote.
7) John Edwards --- I do not think he is a real candidate. I think he is campaigning hard, but again the message is good, but I think a lot of people doubt the messenger.
8) Fred Thompson --- Slowly bleeding candidates. I think he has a very soft 17%. He could lose large chunks of his support in the next 2 months as his followers realize he has no forward momentum and they could get squeezed out of the ear of the incoming president.
9) Richardson --- The only reason I don't have richardson 10th is because I have a feeling he has sewn up the VP job for Hillary. His polling numbers have slid as it became apparent to his supporters that he wasn't going to crack the big 3.
10)Biden -- Biden is gaining momentum, but the big 3 are too settled in as frontrunners in the minds of national Dems. I would guess that if they held all of the primaries today he MIGHT finish 4th. There is no question he is miles ahead of Dodd.
Joe Biden for Secretary of State!
Ok, so my boy Joe Biden is not going to win the election. Check out his interview on the troubles in Pakistan, a nuclear power, and you'll understand why I like the guy for his views on foreign policy.
http://www.joebiden.com/contribution/2?id=0014
http://www.joebiden.com/contribution/2?id=0014
zeitgeist movie, very well made, mind-blowing expose' movie
www.zeitgeistmovie.com
This is an excellent, high quality piece of editorial work that investigates the role of the rich elite in American war efforts and the manipulation of our economy. It also delves into the similarities between religions --- which may or may not interest the readers of this blog --- fast forward through that if it doesn't interest you.
I encourage you to watch the movie critically and draw your own conclusions. There are many compelling arguements made in the movie, but a critical mind will do its own research and make its own determinations.
It is a very well-made documentary with high production values. It is 2 hours long and has a 5 minute introduction to set a very moody tone, so watch it when you have the time and inclination.
from the site:
"Zeitgeist, produced by Peter Joseph, was created as a nonprofit filmiac expression to inspire people to start looking at the world from a more critical perspective and to understand that very often things are not what the population at large think they are. The information in Zeitgeist was established over a year long period of research and the current Source page on this site lists the basic sources used / referenced and the Interactive Transcript includes exact source references and further information.
Now, it's important to point out that there is a tendency to simply disbelieve things that are counter to our understanding, without the necessary research performed. For example, some information contained in Part 1 and Part 3, specifically, is not obtained by simple keyword searches on the Internet. You have to dig deeper. For instance, very often people who look up "Horus" or "The Federal Reserve" on the Internet draw their conclusions from very general or biased sources. Online encyclopedias or text book Encyclopedias often do not contain the information contained in Zeitgeist. However, if one takes the time to read the sources provided, they will find that what is being presented is based on documented evidence. Any corrections, clarifications & further points regarding the film are found on the Clarifications page. Non-Profit DVDs / Free Video Downloads are available through the Downloads page.
That being said, It is my hope that people will not take what is said in the film as the truth, but find out for themselves, for truth is not told, it is realized.
Thank You"
This is an excellent, high quality piece of editorial work that investigates the role of the rich elite in American war efforts and the manipulation of our economy. It also delves into the similarities between religions --- which may or may not interest the readers of this blog --- fast forward through that if it doesn't interest you.
I encourage you to watch the movie critically and draw your own conclusions. There are many compelling arguements made in the movie, but a critical mind will do its own research and make its own determinations.
It is a very well-made documentary with high production values. It is 2 hours long and has a 5 minute introduction to set a very moody tone, so watch it when you have the time and inclination.
from the site:
"Zeitgeist, produced by Peter Joseph, was created as a nonprofit filmiac expression to inspire people to start looking at the world from a more critical perspective and to understand that very often things are not what the population at large think they are. The information in Zeitgeist was established over a year long period of research and the current Source page on this site lists the basic sources used / referenced and the Interactive Transcript includes exact source references and further information.
Now, it's important to point out that there is a tendency to simply disbelieve things that are counter to our understanding, without the necessary research performed. For example, some information contained in Part 1 and Part 3, specifically, is not obtained by simple keyword searches on the Internet. You have to dig deeper. For instance, very often people who look up "Horus" or "The Federal Reserve" on the Internet draw their conclusions from very general or biased sources. Online encyclopedias or text book Encyclopedias often do not contain the information contained in Zeitgeist. However, if one takes the time to read the sources provided, they will find that what is being presented is based on documented evidence. Any corrections, clarifications & further points regarding the film are found on the Clarifications page. Non-Profit DVDs / Free Video Downloads are available through the Downloads page.
That being said, It is my hope that people will not take what is said in the film as the truth, but find out for themselves, for truth is not told, it is realized.
Thank You"
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Hillary is in the lead in Iowa; is it time for Edwards to cut a deal?
Hillary surged up to 30% of the Iowa vote in the latest polls, up from 19.5% in April. Edwards on the other hand has slowly lost momemntum in Iowa, falling from state best high of 31.3% in April down to 19.6%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html
It has been said that if Edwards loses Iowa to Hillary, he likely is out of the race nationwide. I agree with that assessement.
What happens then? Is Hillary likely to name him her VP? I would doubt it. Edward's base is not going to vote for a republican and among the Democrats out there they are the most angry with the republicans and their policies. They are going to vote in numbers for the democratic candidate come hell or high water.
Would Obama invite him to be his VP if Obama gets the vote? I happen to think Edwards would be a decent foil, but that Obama would not offer him the position. The body language I have seen between the two suggests to me that Obama despises the guy. My take on it is that Edwards is a political opportunist and Obama hates that.
(Plus, honestly Obama, like Clinton, would have a better chance of getting elected with Governor Richardson as his VP, and he would deliver New Mexico and give Obama a bump with voters in key large swing states with heavy Mexican populations like Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and Florida. Heck, if the GOP runs Guliani --- A NEW YORKER!!! :P --- with a yankee VP, even my home state of Texas that gets out of bed conservative each morning could be in play in that scenario due to Republican apathy.)
Anyway, as it stands Edwards appears to be on his way to falling out of the race in about 2 months.
What if he cuts a deal?
Supposing Edwards backs out of the race and endorses Obama. I recognize that not all of Edward's supporters will jump to Obama, but I suspect most of them will. They are, afterall, in part supporting Edwards because they are dissatisfied with Hillary's conservative, pro-war stance. Hillary has the highest negative rating in the race, Obama among the lowest.
If Edwards dropped out of the race now and endorsed Obama, it is entirely possible that overnight Obama would become the democratic frontrunner nationwide and in Iowa. As the frontrunner, his campaign philosophy works. In a Clinton/Obama dogfight, Clinton is hamstrung. Obama pulls as much or more money than her. She cannot just bury him under ads. In that scenario, she is clearly the establishment vs. the new blood. She is the war candidate vs. the peace candidate. She has to then fight to max out her potential voting block. The problem is that she doesn't fight well --- often becoming quite catty ---which only further adds to her negative rating.
Edwards could re-enter the race as Obama's VP in a marriage of convenience. Edwards as a southern white man, would help make a black candidate tolerable in less progressive states. Or perhaps to further help the odds of success, the deal could be that Edwards would be Obama's high profile secretary of state for the next 4 years allowing Richardson to be VP and allowing Edwards a lot more freedom in gearing up his next presidential run.
...So, will Edwards deal?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html
It has been said that if Edwards loses Iowa to Hillary, he likely is out of the race nationwide. I agree with that assessement.
What happens then? Is Hillary likely to name him her VP? I would doubt it. Edward's base is not going to vote for a republican and among the Democrats out there they are the most angry with the republicans and their policies. They are going to vote in numbers for the democratic candidate come hell or high water.
Would Obama invite him to be his VP if Obama gets the vote? I happen to think Edwards would be a decent foil, but that Obama would not offer him the position. The body language I have seen between the two suggests to me that Obama despises the guy. My take on it is that Edwards is a political opportunist and Obama hates that.
(Plus, honestly Obama, like Clinton, would have a better chance of getting elected with Governor Richardson as his VP, and he would deliver New Mexico and give Obama a bump with voters in key large swing states with heavy Mexican populations like Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and Florida. Heck, if the GOP runs Guliani --- A NEW YORKER!!! :P --- with a yankee VP, even my home state of Texas that gets out of bed conservative each morning could be in play in that scenario due to Republican apathy.)
Anyway, as it stands Edwards appears to be on his way to falling out of the race in about 2 months.
What if he cuts a deal?
Supposing Edwards backs out of the race and endorses Obama. I recognize that not all of Edward's supporters will jump to Obama, but I suspect most of them will. They are, afterall, in part supporting Edwards because they are dissatisfied with Hillary's conservative, pro-war stance. Hillary has the highest negative rating in the race, Obama among the lowest.
If Edwards dropped out of the race now and endorsed Obama, it is entirely possible that overnight Obama would become the democratic frontrunner nationwide and in Iowa. As the frontrunner, his campaign philosophy works. In a Clinton/Obama dogfight, Clinton is hamstrung. Obama pulls as much or more money than her. She cannot just bury him under ads. In that scenario, she is clearly the establishment vs. the new blood. She is the war candidate vs. the peace candidate. She has to then fight to max out her potential voting block. The problem is that she doesn't fight well --- often becoming quite catty ---which only further adds to her negative rating.
Edwards could re-enter the race as Obama's VP in a marriage of convenience. Edwards as a southern white man, would help make a black candidate tolerable in less progressive states. Or perhaps to further help the odds of success, the deal could be that Edwards would be Obama's high profile secretary of state for the next 4 years allowing Richardson to be VP and allowing Edwards a lot more freedom in gearing up his next presidential run.
...So, will Edwards deal?
The apparent goals of the candidates in the last quarter before primary season
Democratic Candidates
Candidates:
Joe Biden, U.S. Senator from Delaware - Biden is clearly hoping that Mrs. Clinton spontaneously combusts, because the only way he will be on the democratic ticket in the spring is as the Democratic Nominee or Obama's VP. The odds of either are ridiculously long. all that said, it was a good election race to enter for him IMO. He really blew the races with his off-the-cuff day 1 Obama comment. Quite honestly, If that had not happened and if Elizabeth Edwards (who I think DESERVES to be the first lady through her excellent campaigning) did not have health issues that have bonded a portion of the Dem electorate to her husband, Biden could very well have displaced Edwards as the voice of the left in this race and he might be sitting at 20% and trying to make a move past the limp Obama. Although some of it is his own making, with all respect to Mrs. Edwards, I think Biden has had some crap political luck. I think Biden recognizes that he is too much of a high risk candidate with too little political muscle to be a front runner in the race to be Hillary's VP. He is smartly focusing his attacks on Republican front runner Rudy Guliani. That does two things, 1) It legitimizes the moderate Guliani as the frontrunner 2) It points out his weaknesses just as the primaries are beginning. Large constituencies of the Republican party will bail on a likely loser. Biden's strategy really helps the Democratic candidate's chances long term. Biden is probably angling for the Secretary of State job. It should be noted that Hillary did include him in the piling on ad. A warning to ease up?...
Hillary Clinton, U.S. Senator from New York and former First Lady - She spiked in Iowa last week even with her debate trouble. If she wins Iowa, the nomination is hers.
Christopher Dodd, U.S. Senator from Connecticut - He is also a possibility for the Secretary of state job, but would also do well in most cabinet positions. I think he had the same strategy as Biden. It is very difficult for a senator from a small state to make the jump to the presidency.
John Edwards, former U.S. Senator from North Carolina and 2004 Democratic Vice Presidential candidate - He has been a pest to both Obama and CLinton and I think is not in either of their plans. THey both realize that his voters are protest voters who see Obama and Clinton as moderate poseurs and frauds who are not about liberal values. Ultimately his voters will vote Democrat because of a deep hatred of the republican party.
Mike Gravel, former U.S. Senator from Alaska - If this were Survivor, Gravel would have been voted off the island in week one. TO know him as a candidate is to discount or dislike him. It is telling that he has something like 1-3% of the democratic vote and yet his negative rating is not far of hillary's.
Dennis Kucinich, U.S. Representative from Ohio - If only Kucinich was half as hot as his wife. If Kucinich looked like Gary Hart instead of Alfred E. Newman, he would have probably won this nomination. He will get a nice cabinet position under hillary, but if he wants to be a President one day, he needs to do some investing in his physical looks. (I am not hating. American voters are superficial.)He can't do anything about his height, but there are several things he can do. He needs to get his ears done, possibly get braces, to hire a personal trainer, and get a better haircut. His stances are almost as hot as his wife. He just falls short. For America's benefit, I hope he takes the advice.
Barack Obama, U.S. Senator from Illinois - Michelle Obama is the only one on that campaign who "gets it". She said months ago that if they were going to win the election, they had to win Iowa. It appears that they are in the process of losing Iowa. Obama falls in the middleground. He has too much of a shot to take it easy on Hillary in case she falters, but at the same token with each attack falls further out of consideration for the VP spot. I have said this before, Bill Clinton delivers the black vote better than Obama, so why would Hillary need Obama? Barring BIll's health faltering, she doesn't. And why would she reward someone who has been kind of a jerk to her over the Iraq war vote with a cabinet position. IMO, there is no reason for that. He has to attack until the end and hope for a CLinton meltdown.
Bill Richardson, Governor of New Mexico and former Secretary of Energy - Richardson has been faltering in the polls, but I suspect it is mainly an acknowlegement that he isn't going to pass edwards and become a serious candidate. He has smartly been taking Hillary's defense lately. I have said for months that a Clinton/Richardson ticket is a winning ticket. I think Richardson gets that and is trying to get Hillary on board with it.
Republican Party
Candidates:
Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City - Mayor 9/11 has about a 5-12 point lead in the national polls over the other republican contenders. In simple terms, he is a soft frontrunner. I think his inexperience in national campaigns is hurting him. He doesn't seem to get how important Iowa will be in this election. Romney has a real shot of doubling him in Iowa. Guiliani might finish 4th there. That will cause some re-evaluaion. I do not expect a Dean-like implosion, but it is VERY possible.
Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas - Huckabee has had to talk crazy to land the gun and religious nut vote, but he has done it. In spite leaders in those movement's desires to endorse "serious" candidates, huckabee has wooed the rank and file. He has IMO moved to the head of the list of vice presidential candidates.
Duncan Hunter, U.S. Representative from California - In terms of the race, he should have dropped out months ago. He seems an angry crazy man and I am glad THompson is running to block him from any serious impact on this race.
Alan Keyes, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Economic and Social Council - Sigh. You know what role he plays in the Republican Party. Not worth dwelling on.
John McCain, U.S. Senator from Arizona - McCain dug his own hole by embracing Iraq and trying to push through that fiercely unpopular immigration legislation. He has no one to blame but himself. Bush fucked him in 2000 and in return McCain had Bush's back on the war and immigration in 2007? WTF!?!?!? You don't cost yourself an election propping up the current president. AMerican Hero. Man of honor. Sadly, I have to pronounce him an idiot when it comes to running a presidential campaign. As a VP, I think he is a high risk as Biden is for the Dems as a VP. McCain is done as a mover and shaker in the Republican Party and may want to seriously consider jumping to the Dems in a year or so.
Ron Paul, U.S. Representative from Texas and 1988 Libertarian Presidential nominee - The Republican version of Gravel.
Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts - Romney really needs to start his media blitz in the other early primary states now. Project Iowa has gone swimmingly, but once you study Romney's history, you understand why. Guy is a top notch executive.
Tom Tancredo, U.S. Representative from Colorado - He needed to get out of the race yesterday. I think Tancredo is too much of a centralist to fit into today's Republican Party. I think if he had come out stronger against the war at the opening of the campaign season he might have gotten a bounce to relevence on his immigration stance, but as it is now he seems to just be upsetting the republican base. He has very high negative numbers. I think he'd do best to get out of the race now rather than trying to attack Hillary. Everyone does that. It won't give him the bump that Biden is getting in people's minds. (I do recognize that Biden isn't getting a push in the polls, but I think both the Dem candidates and the Dem voters think positively about him.) Tancredo should seriously consider jumping to the Dems. He is young enough to be a strong Presidential candidate in future elections, but there is a strong body of evidence that the GOP has no place for him in that position.
Fred Thompson, former U.S. Senator from Tennessee - I said that Fred want to lose this primary and I think his recent joking with a reporter about how he doesn't think he will win speaks volumes. He wants to get back to his retirement.
Candidates:
Joe Biden, U.S. Senator from Delaware - Biden is clearly hoping that Mrs. Clinton spontaneously combusts, because the only way he will be on the democratic ticket in the spring is as the Democratic Nominee or Obama's VP. The odds of either are ridiculously long. all that said, it was a good election race to enter for him IMO. He really blew the races with his off-the-cuff day 1 Obama comment. Quite honestly, If that had not happened and if Elizabeth Edwards (who I think DESERVES to be the first lady through her excellent campaigning) did not have health issues that have bonded a portion of the Dem electorate to her husband, Biden could very well have displaced Edwards as the voice of the left in this race and he might be sitting at 20% and trying to make a move past the limp Obama. Although some of it is his own making, with all respect to Mrs. Edwards, I think Biden has had some crap political luck. I think Biden recognizes that he is too much of a high risk candidate with too little political muscle to be a front runner in the race to be Hillary's VP. He is smartly focusing his attacks on Republican front runner Rudy Guliani. That does two things, 1) It legitimizes the moderate Guliani as the frontrunner 2) It points out his weaknesses just as the primaries are beginning. Large constituencies of the Republican party will bail on a likely loser. Biden's strategy really helps the Democratic candidate's chances long term. Biden is probably angling for the Secretary of State job. It should be noted that Hillary did include him in the piling on ad. A warning to ease up?...
Hillary Clinton, U.S. Senator from New York and former First Lady - She spiked in Iowa last week even with her debate trouble. If she wins Iowa, the nomination is hers.
Christopher Dodd, U.S. Senator from Connecticut - He is also a possibility for the Secretary of state job, but would also do well in most cabinet positions. I think he had the same strategy as Biden. It is very difficult for a senator from a small state to make the jump to the presidency.
John Edwards, former U.S. Senator from North Carolina and 2004 Democratic Vice Presidential candidate - He has been a pest to both Obama and CLinton and I think is not in either of their plans. THey both realize that his voters are protest voters who see Obama and Clinton as moderate poseurs and frauds who are not about liberal values. Ultimately his voters will vote Democrat because of a deep hatred of the republican party.
Mike Gravel, former U.S. Senator from Alaska - If this were Survivor, Gravel would have been voted off the island in week one. TO know him as a candidate is to discount or dislike him. It is telling that he has something like 1-3% of the democratic vote and yet his negative rating is not far of hillary's.
Dennis Kucinich, U.S. Representative from Ohio - If only Kucinich was half as hot as his wife. If Kucinich looked like Gary Hart instead of Alfred E. Newman, he would have probably won this nomination. He will get a nice cabinet position under hillary, but if he wants to be a President one day, he needs to do some investing in his physical looks. (I am not hating. American voters are superficial.)He can't do anything about his height, but there are several things he can do. He needs to get his ears done, possibly get braces, to hire a personal trainer, and get a better haircut. His stances are almost as hot as his wife. He just falls short. For America's benefit, I hope he takes the advice.
Barack Obama, U.S. Senator from Illinois - Michelle Obama is the only one on that campaign who "gets it". She said months ago that if they were going to win the election, they had to win Iowa. It appears that they are in the process of losing Iowa. Obama falls in the middleground. He has too much of a shot to take it easy on Hillary in case she falters, but at the same token with each attack falls further out of consideration for the VP spot. I have said this before, Bill Clinton delivers the black vote better than Obama, so why would Hillary need Obama? Barring BIll's health faltering, she doesn't. And why would she reward someone who has been kind of a jerk to her over the Iraq war vote with a cabinet position. IMO, there is no reason for that. He has to attack until the end and hope for a CLinton meltdown.
Bill Richardson, Governor of New Mexico and former Secretary of Energy - Richardson has been faltering in the polls, but I suspect it is mainly an acknowlegement that he isn't going to pass edwards and become a serious candidate. He has smartly been taking Hillary's defense lately. I have said for months that a Clinton/Richardson ticket is a winning ticket. I think Richardson gets that and is trying to get Hillary on board with it.
Republican Party
Candidates:
Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City - Mayor 9/11 has about a 5-12 point lead in the national polls over the other republican contenders. In simple terms, he is a soft frontrunner. I think his inexperience in national campaigns is hurting him. He doesn't seem to get how important Iowa will be in this election. Romney has a real shot of doubling him in Iowa. Guiliani might finish 4th there. That will cause some re-evaluaion. I do not expect a Dean-like implosion, but it is VERY possible.
Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas - Huckabee has had to talk crazy to land the gun and religious nut vote, but he has done it. In spite leaders in those movement's desires to endorse "serious" candidates, huckabee has wooed the rank and file. He has IMO moved to the head of the list of vice presidential candidates.
Duncan Hunter, U.S. Representative from California - In terms of the race, he should have dropped out months ago. He seems an angry crazy man and I am glad THompson is running to block him from any serious impact on this race.
Alan Keyes, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Economic and Social Council - Sigh. You know what role he plays in the Republican Party. Not worth dwelling on.
John McCain, U.S. Senator from Arizona - McCain dug his own hole by embracing Iraq and trying to push through that fiercely unpopular immigration legislation. He has no one to blame but himself. Bush fucked him in 2000 and in return McCain had Bush's back on the war and immigration in 2007? WTF!?!?!? You don't cost yourself an election propping up the current president. AMerican Hero. Man of honor. Sadly, I have to pronounce him an idiot when it comes to running a presidential campaign. As a VP, I think he is a high risk as Biden is for the Dems as a VP. McCain is done as a mover and shaker in the Republican Party and may want to seriously consider jumping to the Dems in a year or so.
Ron Paul, U.S. Representative from Texas and 1988 Libertarian Presidential nominee - The Republican version of Gravel.
Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts - Romney really needs to start his media blitz in the other early primary states now. Project Iowa has gone swimmingly, but once you study Romney's history, you understand why. Guy is a top notch executive.
Tom Tancredo, U.S. Representative from Colorado - He needed to get out of the race yesterday. I think Tancredo is too much of a centralist to fit into today's Republican Party. I think if he had come out stronger against the war at the opening of the campaign season he might have gotten a bounce to relevence on his immigration stance, but as it is now he seems to just be upsetting the republican base. He has very high negative numbers. I think he'd do best to get out of the race now rather than trying to attack Hillary. Everyone does that. It won't give him the bump that Biden is getting in people's minds. (I do recognize that Biden isn't getting a push in the polls, but I think both the Dem candidates and the Dem voters think positively about him.) Tancredo should seriously consider jumping to the Dems. He is young enough to be a strong Presidential candidate in future elections, but there is a strong body of evidence that the GOP has no place for him in that position.
Fred Thompson, former U.S. Senator from Tennessee - I said that Fred want to lose this primary and I think his recent joking with a reporter about how he doesn't think he will win speaks volumes. He wants to get back to his retirement.
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