Hillary surged up to 30% of the Iowa vote in the latest polls, up from 19.5% in April. Edwards on the other hand has slowly lost momemntum in Iowa, falling from state best high of 31.3% in April down to 19.6%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_democratic_caucus-208.html
It has been said that if Edwards loses Iowa to Hillary, he likely is out of the race nationwide. I agree with that assessement.
What happens then? Is Hillary likely to name him her VP? I would doubt it. Edward's base is not going to vote for a republican and among the Democrats out there they are the most angry with the republicans and their policies. They are going to vote in numbers for the democratic candidate come hell or high water.
Would Obama invite him to be his VP if Obama gets the vote? I happen to think Edwards would be a decent foil, but that Obama would not offer him the position. The body language I have seen between the two suggests to me that Obama despises the guy. My take on it is that Edwards is a political opportunist and Obama hates that.
(Plus, honestly Obama, like Clinton, would have a better chance of getting elected with Governor Richardson as his VP, and he would deliver New Mexico and give Obama a bump with voters in key large swing states with heavy Mexican populations like Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and Florida. Heck, if the GOP runs Guliani --- A NEW YORKER!!! :P --- with a yankee VP, even my home state of Texas that gets out of bed conservative each morning could be in play in that scenario due to Republican apathy.)
Anyway, as it stands Edwards appears to be on his way to falling out of the race in about 2 months.
What if he cuts a deal?
Supposing Edwards backs out of the race and endorses Obama. I recognize that not all of Edward's supporters will jump to Obama, but I suspect most of them will. They are, afterall, in part supporting Edwards because they are dissatisfied with Hillary's conservative, pro-war stance. Hillary has the highest negative rating in the race, Obama among the lowest.
If Edwards dropped out of the race now and endorsed Obama, it is entirely possible that overnight Obama would become the democratic frontrunner nationwide and in Iowa. As the frontrunner, his campaign philosophy works. In a Clinton/Obama dogfight, Clinton is hamstrung. Obama pulls as much or more money than her. She cannot just bury him under ads. In that scenario, she is clearly the establishment vs. the new blood. She is the war candidate vs. the peace candidate. She has to then fight to max out her potential voting block. The problem is that she doesn't fight well --- often becoming quite catty ---which only further adds to her negative rating.
Edwards could re-enter the race as Obama's VP in a marriage of convenience. Edwards as a southern white man, would help make a black candidate tolerable in less progressive states. Or perhaps to further help the odds of success, the deal could be that Edwards would be Obama's high profile secretary of state for the next 4 years allowing Richardson to be VP and allowing Edwards a lot more freedom in gearing up his next presidential run.
...So, will Edwards deal?
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment