The apparent goals of the candidates in the last quarter before primary season

Democratic Candidates

Candidates:

Joe Biden, U.S. Senator from Delaware - Biden is clearly hoping that Mrs. Clinton spontaneously combusts, because the only way he will be on the democratic ticket in the spring is as the Democratic Nominee or Obama's VP. The odds of either are ridiculously long. all that said, it was a good election race to enter for him IMO. He really blew the races with his off-the-cuff day 1 Obama comment. Quite honestly, If that had not happened and if Elizabeth Edwards (who I think DESERVES to be the first lady through her excellent campaigning) did not have health issues that have bonded a portion of the Dem electorate to her husband, Biden could very well have displaced Edwards as the voice of the left in this race and he might be sitting at 20% and trying to make a move past the limp Obama. Although some of it is his own making, with all respect to Mrs. Edwards, I think Biden has had some crap political luck. I think Biden recognizes that he is too much of a high risk candidate with too little political muscle to be a front runner in the race to be Hillary's VP. He is smartly focusing his attacks on Republican front runner Rudy Guliani. That does two things, 1) It legitimizes the moderate Guliani as the frontrunner 2) It points out his weaknesses just as the primaries are beginning. Large constituencies of the Republican party will bail on a likely loser. Biden's strategy really helps the Democratic candidate's chances long term. Biden is probably angling for the Secretary of State job. It should be noted that Hillary did include him in the piling on ad. A warning to ease up?...

Hillary Clinton, U.S. Senator from New York and former First Lady - She spiked in Iowa last week even with her debate trouble. If she wins Iowa, the nomination is hers.

Christopher Dodd, U.S. Senator from Connecticut - He is also a possibility for the Secretary of state job, but would also do well in most cabinet positions. I think he had the same strategy as Biden. It is very difficult for a senator from a small state to make the jump to the presidency.

John Edwards, former U.S. Senator from North Carolina and 2004 Democratic Vice Presidential candidate - He has been a pest to both Obama and CLinton and I think is not in either of their plans. THey both realize that his voters are protest voters who see Obama and Clinton as moderate poseurs and frauds who are not about liberal values. Ultimately his voters will vote Democrat because of a deep hatred of the republican party.

Mike Gravel, former U.S. Senator from Alaska - If this were Survivor, Gravel would have been voted off the island in week one. TO know him as a candidate is to discount or dislike him. It is telling that he has something like 1-3% of the democratic vote and yet his negative rating is not far of hillary's.

Dennis Kucinich, U.S. Representative from Ohio - If only Kucinich was half as hot as his wife. If Kucinich looked like Gary Hart instead of Alfred E. Newman, he would have probably won this nomination. He will get a nice cabinet position under hillary, but if he wants to be a President one day, he needs to do some investing in his physical looks. (I am not hating. American voters are superficial.)He can't do anything about his height, but there are several things he can do. He needs to get his ears done, possibly get braces, to hire a personal trainer, and get a better haircut. His stances are almost as hot as his wife. He just falls short. For America's benefit, I hope he takes the advice.

Barack Obama, U.S. Senator from Illinois - Michelle Obama is the only one on that campaign who "gets it". She said months ago that if they were going to win the election, they had to win Iowa. It appears that they are in the process of losing Iowa. Obama falls in the middleground. He has too much of a shot to take it easy on Hillary in case she falters, but at the same token with each attack falls further out of consideration for the VP spot. I have said this before, Bill Clinton delivers the black vote better than Obama, so why would Hillary need Obama? Barring BIll's health faltering, she doesn't. And why would she reward someone who has been kind of a jerk to her over the Iraq war vote with a cabinet position. IMO, there is no reason for that. He has to attack until the end and hope for a CLinton meltdown.

Bill Richardson, Governor of New Mexico and former Secretary of Energy - Richardson has been faltering in the polls, but I suspect it is mainly an acknowlegement that he isn't going to pass edwards and become a serious candidate. He has smartly been taking Hillary's defense lately. I have said for months that a Clinton/Richardson ticket is a winning ticket. I think Richardson gets that and is trying to get Hillary on board with it.

Republican Party

Candidates:

Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City - Mayor 9/11 has about a 5-12 point lead in the national polls over the other republican contenders. In simple terms, he is a soft frontrunner. I think his inexperience in national campaigns is hurting him. He doesn't seem to get how important Iowa will be in this election. Romney has a real shot of doubling him in Iowa. Guiliani might finish 4th there. That will cause some re-evaluaion. I do not expect a Dean-like implosion, but it is VERY possible.

Mike Huckabee, former Governor of Arkansas - Huckabee has had to talk crazy to land the gun and religious nut vote, but he has done it. In spite leaders in those movement's desires to endorse "serious" candidates, huckabee has wooed the rank and file. He has IMO moved to the head of the list of vice presidential candidates.

Duncan Hunter, U.S. Representative from California - In terms of the race, he should have dropped out months ago. He seems an angry crazy man and I am glad THompson is running to block him from any serious impact on this race.

Alan Keyes, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Economic and Social Council - Sigh. You know what role he plays in the Republican Party. Not worth dwelling on.

John McCain, U.S. Senator from Arizona - McCain dug his own hole by embracing Iraq and trying to push through that fiercely unpopular immigration legislation. He has no one to blame but himself. Bush fucked him in 2000 and in return McCain had Bush's back on the war and immigration in 2007? WTF!?!?!? You don't cost yourself an election propping up the current president. AMerican Hero. Man of honor. Sadly, I have to pronounce him an idiot when it comes to running a presidential campaign. As a VP, I think he is a high risk as Biden is for the Dems as a VP. McCain is done as a mover and shaker in the Republican Party and may want to seriously consider jumping to the Dems in a year or so.

Ron Paul, U.S. Representative from Texas and 1988 Libertarian Presidential nominee - The Republican version of Gravel.

Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts - Romney really needs to start his media blitz in the other early primary states now. Project Iowa has gone swimmingly, but once you study Romney's history, you understand why. Guy is a top notch executive.

Tom Tancredo, U.S. Representative from Colorado - He needed to get out of the race yesterday. I think Tancredo is too much of a centralist to fit into today's Republican Party. I think if he had come out stronger against the war at the opening of the campaign season he might have gotten a bounce to relevence on his immigration stance, but as it is now he seems to just be upsetting the republican base. He has very high negative numbers. I think he'd do best to get out of the race now rather than trying to attack Hillary. Everyone does that. It won't give him the bump that Biden is getting in people's minds. (I do recognize that Biden isn't getting a push in the polls, but I think both the Dem candidates and the Dem voters think positively about him.) Tancredo should seriously consider jumping to the Dems. He is young enough to be a strong Presidential candidate in future elections, but there is a strong body of evidence that the GOP has no place for him in that position.

Fred Thompson, former U.S. Senator from Tennessee - I said that Fred want to lose this primary and I think his recent joking with a reporter about how he doesn't think he will win speaks volumes. He wants to get back to his retirement.