Politico's political "Juice" rankings:
1) Hil Clinton --- The frontrunner in the elections, but a very soft frontrunner. SHe doesn't campaign well in close races.
2) Barak Obama --- A blessing from the good witch of Harpo has Obama primed to win Iowa and New Hampshire. If he takes both, edwards supporters (who are strongly anti-hillary, could easily join the swell and overtake Hillary.
3) Mitt Romney --- rising in Iowa lately and may pass the falling Huckabee. Only Huckabee and Romney are considered "politically acceptable" by the confeild faithful.
4) Mayor 9/11 --- Current GOP national frontrunner, but IMO a joke of one. He has no momentum at all. Biden's wicked tongue has ripped the only platform out from the former Mayor of NY; silencing Guilani's 911 mantra and leaving his faithful with no reason to vote for him. I expect a Dean-like implosion after Iowa.
5) Mike Huckabee --- Scandals and general meanness will cut Huckabee with both his conservative faithful and his moderate supporters. He still has little money to campaign beyond Iowa and, as such, remains a longshot in a national race. He has to win Iowa to get the "bounce to relevancy" whereas the filthy rich Romney can take a close second in Iowa and a media fueled win in New Hampshire and become the Rep. frontrunner...unless...
6) The Zombie John McCain --- Simple math. If Mayor 911 slumps following a Romney win in Iowa, Huckabee can't gain momentum outside of the state due to financial limitations, Fred Thompson proves a failed candidate and doesn't break say 10% in Iowa....that is darned near 50% of the republican nomination in play. The Religious Reich consider Mormonism a cult and Rudy G a male Hillary Clinton. If Huckabee and Thompson are proven financially and politically unviable, where else can that support go? Do not be suprised to see a lazarius-style resurrection of John McCain in New Hampshire. The McCain Zombie could come out of nowhere to steal the nomination.
7) John Edwards --- He has to win Iowa to have even a slim shot at this. I cannot see him overcoming Oprah, even with the help of kung fu fighter Chuck Norris. Technically, Edwards is surging, but Obama and Hil have more juice, so it doesn't show. Look for his implosion after Iowa to fuel anti-Clinton Dems joining Obama.
8) Joe Biden -- Biden is surging. Do not be suprised if he finishes 3rd in Iowa. The state has been bombarded with messages for almost a full year. Biden has the advantage of being a known commodity in the state. Logically he will do a little better than he has been polling for that reason. I think that, his strong knowelged of foreigh policy, and his total dismantling of Rudy Guilani might make him the perfect foil/attack dog for an Obama presidency. Peaking at the right time.
9)Richardson --- technically has less support than Thomspon, but is theoretically holding firm in Iowa. I would not be suprised to see him lose about half of his support to Biden on election day though. Biden has been through the state campaigning before. In a way Biden is "family"; That will be a hard pull vs. a guy who is showing no momentum. Still he has to be the front runner to be Hillary's VP.
10) Fred Thompson --- D.O.A. He really hasn't shown anything at all since declaring. He was brought in to be a ringer. His supporters support frontrunners. By the end of the Iowa race, it will be abundantly clear that he is not a frontrunner. His followers will have a choice of being politically irrelevant and letting two reprehensible candidates (romney and Guiliani, in their opinion) vie for the GOP slot or chose a viable 3rd candidate -- McCain or the imploding Huckabee.
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Huckabee: Flawed candidate on verge of implosion?
I have been a watcher of Mike Huckabee and a general fan of him personally, even if his politics fall on the other side of the fence from my normal comfort zone. he seems a fiancial realist and a practical politician.
How about this populist gem from Huckabee?
“Do you realize that if we could increase just by 50 percent the number of adults who have a college degree, it would add $5 billion to the economy and it would result in a net income to the state of Arkansas of $340 million a year?” --- That is someone who financially thinks like I do. Government can invest in its people to a good return.
I have watched him grab ahold of the the Religious Reich and the Gun Nut rank and file (against the wishes of the ruling elite of those political blocks) and turn himself into a legitimate political candidate in Iowa.
He seemed like an honest, straight-forward guy who was religious, but didn't wrap himself in the cloak of moral superiority. He has said some crazy things in currying the gun-nut/rr vote*, but in the primaries you campaing to your base, in the elections you campaign to the middle. I don't hold that agaisnt him, but...
(* "I'm pretty sure there's gonna be duck hunting in heaven... and I can't wait!")
I am inclined to think his metoric rise is over, in spite of him recently adding the excellent Ed Rollins as his campaign manager. I think Huckabee is being outed as a candidate with just as many skeletons in the closet as Mayor 911. When you figure in the fact that Huckabee's base are the folks who's leadership declined to endorse Huckabee to begin with (presumably they saw these skeletons in the closet and decided he was unelectable), it seems likely that he may find a lot of these leaders jumping over to McCain or Romney in the next 2 weeks. It is, afterall, in their interest to say to their consituency, "you backsed the wrong horse this time, stick with me and we will get the right one next time." rather than sitting back and being seem as impotent or irrelevant in this race. Deals will be cut.
Huckabee has shown himeslf to be mean-spirited in the last 45 days or so, he has gone out of his way to be unneccessarily hateful to gays and Mormons. He has moved from being devoutly, and righteously pro-life to dogmatically pro-life. Huckabee's momentum was based on his positive message and his general likeability. He has shown his petty side over the last 3 weeks and has seen a couple of missteps from the past (his AIDS ideas, women's subserviant roles, and the rape scandal) come back to haunt him. His upwards momentum has stalled and his negative numbers have gone way up. That can't be corrected in 3 weeks. I think Huckabee is going to lose Iowa to Romney or McCain and I think he may have also lost out on the VP job if Romney (or perhaps McCain) gets the nod.
--------------
What is the rape issue floating over Huckabee's head?
Well, this is it in a nutshell. I got the story from the McGlocklin group. I make no pronouncements over whether this is a justified criticism or a fair one, but this is it. A rapist in Arkansas was granted an early release. His victim begged the Governor not to allow him to be pardoned. The Governor says he had nothing to do with the pardon and says it was all the parole board, but a member of the parole board has come out and said they pardoned the guy because the governor wanted him pardoned. He put it all on Huckabee.
Anyway, this is where it gets really seedy. The political insiders on the M.G. said there is some thought that the release of this guy may have been a political slap at the Clintons as the victim was a cousin of Bill's.
Anyway this guy got out and raped 2 women and killed them. Their families are mad as hell and will make a world of stink to keep Huckabee out of the presidency.
Now there are scandals and there are SCANDALS. If even half of this is true, Huckabee is going to have a very hard time rallying voters who favor strong sentancing. Republicans don't want to escape the primaries with a lame duck candidate.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/12/04/documents-expose-huckabee_n_75362.html
How about this populist gem from Huckabee?
“Do you realize that if we could increase just by 50 percent the number of adults who have a college degree, it would add $5 billion to the economy and it would result in a net income to the state of Arkansas of $340 million a year?” --- That is someone who financially thinks like I do. Government can invest in its people to a good return.
I have watched him grab ahold of the the Religious Reich and the Gun Nut rank and file (against the wishes of the ruling elite of those political blocks) and turn himself into a legitimate political candidate in Iowa.
He seemed like an honest, straight-forward guy who was religious, but didn't wrap himself in the cloak of moral superiority. He has said some crazy things in currying the gun-nut/rr vote*, but in the primaries you campaing to your base, in the elections you campaign to the middle. I don't hold that agaisnt him, but...
(* "I'm pretty sure there's gonna be duck hunting in heaven... and I can't wait!")
I am inclined to think his metoric rise is over, in spite of him recently adding the excellent Ed Rollins as his campaign manager. I think Huckabee is being outed as a candidate with just as many skeletons in the closet as Mayor 911. When you figure in the fact that Huckabee's base are the folks who's leadership declined to endorse Huckabee to begin with (presumably they saw these skeletons in the closet and decided he was unelectable), it seems likely that he may find a lot of these leaders jumping over to McCain or Romney in the next 2 weeks. It is, afterall, in their interest to say to their consituency, "you backsed the wrong horse this time, stick with me and we will get the right one next time." rather than sitting back and being seem as impotent or irrelevant in this race. Deals will be cut.
Huckabee has shown himeslf to be mean-spirited in the last 45 days or so, he has gone out of his way to be unneccessarily hateful to gays and Mormons. He has moved from being devoutly, and righteously pro-life to dogmatically pro-life. Huckabee's momentum was based on his positive message and his general likeability. He has shown his petty side over the last 3 weeks and has seen a couple of missteps from the past (his AIDS ideas, women's subserviant roles, and the rape scandal) come back to haunt him. His upwards momentum has stalled and his negative numbers have gone way up. That can't be corrected in 3 weeks. I think Huckabee is going to lose Iowa to Romney or McCain and I think he may have also lost out on the VP job if Romney (or perhaps McCain) gets the nod.
--------------
What is the rape issue floating over Huckabee's head?
Well, this is it in a nutshell. I got the story from the McGlocklin group. I make no pronouncements over whether this is a justified criticism or a fair one, but this is it. A rapist in Arkansas was granted an early release. His victim begged the Governor not to allow him to be pardoned. The Governor says he had nothing to do with the pardon and says it was all the parole board, but a member of the parole board has come out and said they pardoned the guy because the governor wanted him pardoned. He put it all on Huckabee.
Anyway, this is where it gets really seedy. The political insiders on the M.G. said there is some thought that the release of this guy may have been a political slap at the Clintons as the victim was a cousin of Bill's.
Anyway this guy got out and raped 2 women and killed them. Their families are mad as hell and will make a world of stink to keep Huckabee out of the presidency.
Now there are scandals and there are SCANDALS. If even half of this is true, Huckabee is going to have a very hard time rallying voters who favor strong sentancing. Republicans don't want to escape the primaries with a lame duck candidate.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/12/04/documents-expose-huckabee_n_75362.html
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Huckabee falling back as Romney narrows lead.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html
Friday, December 14, 2007
Guiliani, Edwards, Thomspon -- put a fork in them
I am prononuncing Mayor 911 as D.O.A. effective today. His strategy was to accept a few defeats in the early states comfortable in the knowledge that he would win NY, FL, CA, and do well in most of the states where he has campaigned for most of his supporters. Now it is looking like he may be swept in the early primary states and worst of all he has NO momentum.
He's done kids. This is going to be a Howard Dean-type implosion.
And while I'm at it, put a fork in Fred Thompson and John Edwards as well. Neither candidate has any momentum and both will see their suport vanish overnight after Iowa.
Now that support will redistribute itself in what may seem strange ways. Look for the McCain Zombie to rememege on the republican side and either take New Hampshire or run a strong second as Thompson, (in spite of the dreams of the GOP power brokers) was in essence, a leech of McCain supporters. With his lack of clothes being revealed in Iowa, McCain will probably get a second wind.
Remember kids, hard work does pay off. Look at Uncle John!
Edward's base is the liberal left of the party. They don't like Hillary because they see her for what she is, the left hand of the power elite. They prefer Edwards over Obama, but they are in the 40% of America that doesn't like Hillary. Look for Edwards' support to fall off a cliff after Iowa and Obama to be neck and neck with Hillary. Also don't be suprised to see political Vet Biden take some of the anti-hillary vote and make a strong case to be Biden's VP. Biden can be a very effective attack dog and his knowledge of foreign relations would erase many questions on an Obama ticket. Plus they see to genuinely like each other.
He's done kids. This is going to be a Howard Dean-type implosion.
And while I'm at it, put a fork in Fred Thompson and John Edwards as well. Neither candidate has any momentum and both will see their suport vanish overnight after Iowa.
Now that support will redistribute itself in what may seem strange ways. Look for the McCain Zombie to rememege on the republican side and either take New Hampshire or run a strong second as Thompson, (in spite of the dreams of the GOP power brokers) was in essence, a leech of McCain supporters. With his lack of clothes being revealed in Iowa, McCain will probably get a second wind.
Remember kids, hard work does pay off. Look at Uncle John!
Edward's base is the liberal left of the party. They don't like Hillary because they see her for what she is, the left hand of the power elite. They prefer Edwards over Obama, but they are in the 40% of America that doesn't like Hillary. Look for Edwards' support to fall off a cliff after Iowa and Obama to be neck and neck with Hillary. Also don't be suprised to see political Vet Biden take some of the anti-hillary vote and make a strong case to be Biden's VP. Biden can be a very effective attack dog and his knowledge of foreign relations would erase many questions on an Obama ticket. Plus they see to genuinely like each other.
Monday, December 10, 2007
Hurricane Oprah sweeping Obama into office?
http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/12/09/oprah.obama/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7134895.stm
I think in general terms people don't really get how influential Oprah is. If I could name one person who's political touch could potentially swing an election, it is Oprah. With the right candidate, Winfrey could put them over the top as amuch as any religious powerbroker. Obama might be that candidate.
I say this only partially tongue-in-cheek, but a stirringly heartfelt endorsement like oprah is giving Obama may be second only to an endorsement by Jesus Christ himself.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7134895.stm
I think in general terms people don't really get how influential Oprah is. If I could name one person who's political touch could potentially swing an election, it is Oprah. With the right candidate, Winfrey could put them over the top as amuch as any religious powerbroker. Obama might be that candidate.
I say this only partially tongue-in-cheek, but a stirringly heartfelt endorsement like oprah is giving Obama may be second only to an endorsement by Jesus Christ himself.
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