Hillary weathers "driver's license" storm? It appears so...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/weekly_presidential_tracking_polling_history

The new national polls are out.

10/28/07 (before Hillary's debate debacle)

Clinton - 44% (down 2% from the polls on the 15th and 22nd)
Obama - 20% (down 4% from the poll on the 22nd)
Edwards - 14%(up 3% from the polls on the 15th and 22nd)

11/4/07 (after the debate debacle)

Clinton - 42% (down 2%)
Obama - 22% (up 2%)
Edwards - 12% (down 2%)

When you consider the margin of error, it appears that -- like most debates -- this debate had little to no immediate affect. Debates can have long term effects though by introducing concepts that can be played out over time. It appears to me that this will most likely hurt hillary in the general election by opening the door to "flip-flopper" criticisms.

I think ultimately, the democratic feild has made up it's mind on the top 3 for now. Movement is only going to come if Edwards or Obama run away with Iowa and force a reconsideration.

On the republican side, Huckabee and Romney continue to chip away at Thompson and Guliani. I am not prepared to crown Romney the front-runner yet, but I think if Guliani's numbers stay floating in the 23-25% range he will be in real trouble after Romney destroys him in Iowa. There will be a reconsideration there.

10/28/07

Guliani -21% (down from 29% on the 15th and 25% on the 22nd)
Thompson - 18% (down from 19% on the 22nd)
Romney - 12% (down from 15% on the 22nd)
McCain - 14% (up from 12% on the 22nd)
Huckabee - 12% (up from 8% on the 22nd)

11/4/07
Guliani -23% (up 2%)
Thompson - 17% (down 1%)
Romney - 13% (up 1%)
McCain - 13% (down 1%)
Huckabee - 12% (no change)

I think Guiliani and Huckabee are moving and everyone else is more or less staying in place. I think Huckabee has taken a jump in Republican voter's minds to "serious candidate and IMO the front runner to be vice president. I think all 5 candidates had a solid core of 10-15% of the republican voters who love them and the rest are people leaning their way. Guliani should be considered the frontrunner, but this race will be a dogfight.