Friday, November 9, 2007

Hardball political power rankings are just nuts.

their rankings:

1) Hil Clinton
2) Barak Obama
3) Mayor 9/11
4) John Edwards
5) Mitt Romney
6) John McCain
7) Fred Thompson
8) Mike Huckabee
9) Richardson
10)Biden/Dodd

I can only speculate that they based those rankings off the "candidate vs. candidate" polls --- IMO a very flawed bit of polling as it doesn't take into account the realities of the electoral college. I think you really have to put these candidates in order by political juice --- share of the current audience, how solid it appears to be, and what kind of momentum potential they seem to have.


Politico's political "Juice" rankings:

1) Hil Clinton --- The frontrunner by 7-20% in all primaries.
2) Mitt Romney --- Could double Guliani in Iowa riding it into the GOP frontrunner position.
3) Mayor 9/11 --- Current GOP frontrunner, but IMO a very soft front runner. Under fire from Biden and beset by scandals; could finish 4th in Iowa and implode.
4) Barak Obama --- 20% of the vote is nothing to sneeze at, but has no idea how to attack and opponent. Dead in the water.
5) John McCain --- Everytime I want to throw dirt on McCain's grave he gets another endorsement. If Thompson implodes or quits before the election, the McCain Zombie could come out of nowhere to steal the nomination.
6) Mike Huckabee --- He may be topped out, but 12% is a heck of an accomplishment with no one giving him money. That is a very solid 12%. He owns the religious and gun nut vote.
7) John Edwards --- I do not think he is a real candidate. I think he is campaigning hard, but again the message is good, but I think a lot of people doubt the messenger.
8) Fred Thompson --- Slowly bleeding candidates. I think he has a very soft 17%. He could lose large chunks of his support in the next 2 months as his followers realize he has no forward momentum and they could get squeezed out of the ear of the incoming president.
9) Richardson --- The only reason I don't have richardson 10th is because I have a feeling he has sewn up the VP job for Hillary. His polling numbers have slid as it became apparent to his supporters that he wasn't going to crack the big 3.
10)Biden -- Biden is gaining momentum, but the big 3 are too settled in as frontrunners in the minds of national Dems. I would guess that if they held all of the primaries today he MIGHT finish 4th. There is no question he is miles ahead of Dodd.

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