What does the Romney victory in Michigan mean?

It could go either way. If Romney capitalizes on this and wins Nevada and finishes second or even a close third in SC, he could run away with the nomination. Romney's resume perfectly positions him to run as the economic "fix it" candidate. That's what he ran as in Michigan and frankly if that had been the focus of his campaign he'd probably have already secured the nomination. One would hope for his sake that he recognizes the message worked for him. He also got a healthy bounce by people loyal to his dad.

This could put John McCain nearing the rocks again. He will probably win SC. so he will be in top 3 entering SuperDuper Tuesday, but he cannot be considered the favorite anymore. In Michigan, McCain was unable to land much of the independent vote at all. It strongly suggests that his New Hampshire victory was more of an isolated phonomenon and that indys are tuning him out. That would make a McCain overall victory only possible if the vote is splt so much that the winners of most states are getting in the low 20's and the insiders push McCain. The problem for McCain is that the powerbrokers like Romney too.

Two other things to consider. Turnout in Michigan was extremely low. The indications are that only republicans voted, and at that in very small numbers. That suggests that independents are leaning againsts voting for a republican (not that they will vote democrat en masse -- they may not vote --- but if the economy continues to tank it certainly doesn't bode well for the republicans.) Secondly, There was a public call from the fringes of the democratic party for Michigan residents to vote for Romney to futher cloud the republican's choice of candidate. It is unclear that this did not give romney a little bump. It is possible that those independents that did vote were not as forcefully McCain voters as last time for that reason. I think the michigan results in themseleves mean almost nothing, but theyy do mean a ton in terms of neutralizing McCain's momentum and galvanizing Romney and his supporters into thinking they can win.

On the democratic side, do not be so quick to write off michigan. Since Hillary was the only candidate officially on the ballot, she won almost 2/3rds of the vote. Now the idea is that the Dems won't allow those votes to be cast since Obama and Edwards were not on the ballot, but do not be suprised if Hillary loses a narrow nationwide vote, if her people challenge the party's right to block those votes. If this election is close, IMO Hillary has the tie breaker in Michigan.