Bush commutes Libby Sentence; Will his approval rating drop below Nixon's or rise above Carter's?

"WASHINGTON (CNN) — President Bush has commuted the prison term of former White House aide Lewis “Scooter” Libby, who faced 30 months in prison after his March conviction on federal charges of perjury, obstruction of justice and lying to investigators.

Libby, the former chief of staff to Vice President Dick Cheney, was convicted in March of perjury, obstruction of justice and lying to
investigators probing the 2003 disclosure of CIA operative Valerie Plame Wilson’s identity. A federal judge in Washington sentenced Libby to prison in June, and a federal appeals court rejected the ex-official’s bid to remain free while appealing his conviction earlier Monday.

In a written statement issued hours after that ruling, Bush called 30-month term “excessive.” But he also rejected calls for a pardon for Libby, and said the onetime adviser will still have to pay a $250,000 fine and remain on probation for two years...."Click here for article.

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I think this is interesting on a number of levels. Bush clearly was unwilling to pardon Libby last month because he needed Democratic support to try to pass his immegration reform. His thought clearly was that he couldn't strongarm laws through using the no longer existant Republican majority, so he would cook a deal with the devils and get a law passed that the Republicans would never agree to.

His supporters could then argue, "Well, while it is true that his approval rating dipped slightly below Carter's, Bush WAS re-elected and after that approval rating dip he did pass legislation that permanently allowed the Republicans to at least break even on the latino vote."

That would suggest that he successfully skirted being a lame duck president by delivering legislation that had long term value for his party.

But that failed. With the bill's death, the effort only succeeded in angering members of his party. Staring at the possiblity of his next approval poll rating showing the anger of the party faithful and the very real possibility of his approval rating falling BELOW NIXON'S LOWEST RATING, Bush had to do something to rally the party faithful. So he pardoned Libby.

I think it is an extremely interesting question. Will his approval rating go up with the pardon, giving him a shot to escape the cruel eye of historians tagging his Presidency with the title of "worst in Modern history, if not of all time" or will it drop below Nixon's, essentially confirming it?

Either way, I think Bush rightly recognized he had to do it, if he wanted to be anything more than a political outcast (ala Nixon and Carter) after leaving office. Clearly, his legacy matters a LOT to him. As a Bush hater, I am enjoying this immensely.

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Bush's legacy
1) Iraq
2) Afganistan
3) The debt those wars incurred
4) The precidence of the use of Presidential notes as a defacto veto (ex. McCain ushered through a law preventing torture of captured soldiers. Bush threw in a presidential note that essentially made that portion of the law irrelevant/non-binding/ whatever. That is a huge departure from previous President's use of this ability.)
5) Religion invading the world of politics.
6) The Rich evading taxes and corporations profiting on US taxpayers.
7) The deportation of US jobs to fund bonuses for Corporate leaders.
8) No child left behind.
9) Some good economic times, some bad.
10) Homeland security.

That is Bush's legacy that I see today. Not a lot of good there. I think Homeland security will eventually turn into a positive for him once the new President makes that department work. It will have been created on Bush's watch, so Bush will get credit. Historians will judge him pretty harshly as he had did this with a congress rubberstamping him for 6 years.

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Lowest Approval Ratings for Presidents
President % Approve
George W. Bush 26 6/18-19/07 Newsweek
Clinton 36 5/26-27/93 Newsweek
G.H.W. Bush 29 7/31-8/2/92 Gallup
Reagan 35 1/28-31/83 Gallup
Carter 28 6/29-7/2/79 Gallup
Ford 37 1/10-13/75 & 3/28-31/75 Gallup
Nixon 23 1/4-7/74 Gallup
Johnson 35 8/7-12/68 Gallup
Kennedy 56 9/12-17/63 Gallup
Eisenhower 48 3/27-4/1/58 Gallup
Truman 22 2/9-14/52 Gallup
Roosevelt% 48 8/18-24/39 Gallup

Source: The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research iPoll database.