National polls from June and what they suggest.

I have pulled information from 4 polls from the poll compilation site, www.presidentpolls2008.com: 1)USA Today/Gallup 6/13, 2)American research group 6/11, 3)NBC News/Wall St. Journal, and 4) ABC News/Washington Post

These four were the most recently updated and represent some of the alarger news organizations out there, so I thought they were pretty useful in looking at trends.

Some basic things about these results. Some of the polls do not have numbers on some of the finge candidates. I supsect it is because the candidates were not included int he poll questions. That will skew the information somewhat, but we are looking for general trends so we should be alright.

First the Dems.

candidates 1 2 3 4
Hillary Clinton 39% 39% 39% 42%
Barack Obama 26% 19% 25% 27%
John Edwards 13% 13% 15% 11%
Bill Richardson 5% 5% 4% 2%
Joe Biden 3% 3% 4% 2%
Mike Gravel 1% 1% - -
Dennis Kucinich 1% 1% 3% 2%
Chris Dodd - - - 1%
Unsure 8% 16% 5%
Other 1% - 2% -
Wesley Clark* - 1% - -
None of the above- - 2% 4%

I think it is clear that NATIONALLY Clinton does in fact have about a 14% lead on Obama. Hillary is clearly relaxed and able to focus on just looking presidential. The odds of her losing the Democratic nomination are long as long as she has a double digit lead. She can make misleading proclamations without any of them being binding and just slowly add to her lead.

Obama is piling up the money and presumeably will be engaging in a media blitz at some point. I think Obama is running the wrong kind of campaign against Clinton. It may be that Obama is thinking that he wants the VP nomination if he can't get the presidential nod so he doesn't want to upset Hillary by going negative. I think that is a huge mistake. Bill Clinton can deliver the black vote. Richardson would be a much better VP candidate in terms of what he gives Clinton.

Edwards seems to be failing. He seems likely down to 13%. Now that isn't to say he is dead. Edwards is strong in many of the early primary states because he is campaigning smartly, but I still think Edwards' problem is he has the right message, but is the wrong messenger. He still could be a power broker if the choice falls between Obama and Clinton, but it could be an odd marriage as Obama clearly has a good bit of disdain towards Edwards.

Richardson seems to be faltering a bit, at least nationally. A few months ago he seemed to be moving towards Edwards. Looking at the polls, that momentum may be stalling a bit. He has a great resume and people like him when they meet him in person, but he absolutely stinks in the debates. He really needs to be coached better by his handlers.

Biden seems to have gained some traction, but not enough. He really needs to grab some share in the early primary states. He needs to take advantage of national news by making the best commentaries on it. He needs to displace Edwards as the #3 if he is going to have a shot at the Presidency.


Now the Dems with the spoiler Al Gore figured in...

Candidates 1 4
Hillary Clinton 33% 35%
Barack Obama 21% 23%
Al Gore 18% 17%
John Edwards 11% 8%
Bill Richardson 5% 2%
Chris Dodd 1%
Joe Biden 3% 2%
Mike Gravel 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1% 1%
Unsure 7%
Other 1% 4%

The Democratic frontrunners SHOULD be a little scared of Gore. Gore at 17-18% with no stated desire to run is actually polling much better than Fred Thomspson did (before more or less letting it be known he would be running). (Thompson was about half that). It is very conceivable he would enter the race around 25% and as such immediately displace Obama as the #2 candidate --- forcing Obama to totally change his campaign stategy --- as well as pulling Hillary down to the low 30's where she would be very uncomfortable and history suggests might misstep. Additionally Gore is a southern stater, which could help him win Florida this time around as none of the republican candidates have the ties there that Bush has.

Essentially, I think the election's Gore's if he wants it...but does he want it? My gut says no. Gore cares about the environment and as a retired politician non-beholden to either party he can sway more people. Plus if he were interested, now would be the time to declare. I see no urgency there.


On to the Republicans.

For the republicans the data is limited because of Thomson joining the race limits the usefulness of the polls.

Candidates 1 3
Rudy Giuliani 29% 29%
Fred Thompson 21% 20%
John McCain 20% 14%
Mitt Romney 8% 14%
Mike Huckabee 3% 3%
Tommy Thompson 2% 0%
Duncan Hunter 2% 1%
Sam Brownback 2% 1%
Ron Paul 2% 2%
Tom Tancredo 1% 1%
Jim Gilmore 1% 1%
Chuck Hagel 1% 0%
Unsure 8% 10%
Others 1%
None of the above 2%

Guiliani is the national front runner, but could be in real trouble as much of his support is in NY and California. The momentum in the election seems to be rushing quickly towards Fred Thompson. By time NYers and Californians vote, his popularity may be irrelevant. Additionally, I f he gets the nomination, Guilliani may also be really screwed if Bloomberg enters the race as an independent.

Fred Thompson seems the man to beat frankly, but I think his watergate connection may really hurt him --- as I hear the story he apparently spied for Nixon. Additionally, how much do the Republicans really know about Thompson. The reviews I have read of him indicate he shared a very similar voting record to John McCain who the conservatives really hate. But he seems to say the kinds of things Republicans like to hear.

McCain has to hope for a Thomson flameout. He was struggling to stay in second without Thompson and now is struggling to stay relevant with Thompson in it. You have to wonder how McCain feels about his friend --- and a guy who was endorsing McCain a few months ago --- basically stealing his nomination. Thompson seems to be killing McCain's remaing shot at the Presidency. Still, McCain has no one to blame but himself. When he adopted the Iraqi war as his, he lost the support of moderates that would have made him a viable candidate.

Romney has an outside shot to make a real move. He is pumping money into the early states and has a very good chance to have a good showing in the early states. That could dramatically change his national perception. If Romney wins some early states, it could quickly turn into a 3 horse race between Romney, Thompson, and Guiliani.

I am pleased to see Mike Huckabee up to 3 percent. I think he is actually the most substantial of the above candidates. He is a man of principle. He is a former priest and his religious knowledge does permeate his actions, but he isn't a devisive religious or party hack like Bush. He respects others in his words and his actions. He seems a consensus maker like McCain and Clinton. You can't help but like him, the more you see him. If he got the nomination he could do very well in the battleground states. He would do quite well against Hillary, IMO.

I think there really is only one more serious candidate among the rest of the feild---Tom Tancredo. Tancredo has a clear vision on what America should be and isn't a dick. He is a conservative who beleives strongly in border control and might actually get a jumpstart from the immigration battle.

Tommy Thompson, Gilmore, and Hunter seem like good conservatives, but they don't have the connections or the money, and the feild seems too crowded for just being conservative to get them any traction. Hunter seems like kind of a dick --- which can work in the Republican Party (Dick Chaney), but frankly his dickishness pales besides the intimidating Chaneyesque ballbreaker act Fred Thompson can oose. Brownback hits me as the guy who spouts toothless, inane, canned crap in response to every question. He seems weaselly. Paul is an internet freakshow. I'll certainly give it to him that he stands up for what he beleives, but there is a certain amount of tailoring of your arguements that you have to do to be a serious candidate and he is unwilling to compromise for anything. He reminds me of Pat Buchanan or Ralph Nader --- useless time wasters who put too high of an opinion of their opinions instead of showing an ability to compromise from time to time to acheive bigger goals.

Now with spoiler Newt Gingrich entering the race...

1 2
Rudy Giuliani 28% 24%
Fred Thompson 19% 15%
John McCain 18% 20%
Mitt Romney 7% 10%
Newt Gingrich 7% 12%
Mike Huckabee 3% 1%
Tommy Thompson 2% 1%
Duncan Hunter 2% 1%
Sam Brownback 2% 1%
Ron Paul 2% 1%
Tom Tancredo 1% 1%
Jim Gilmore 1% 1%
Chuck Hagel 1% 1%
Unsure 8% 11%
None of the above

The best hope for McCain would be Gingrich entering the race. If Gingrich were in, it appears he would split the support for Thompson and Romney and pull Guiliani back to the pack a little more. McCain could get right back into the race at that point.

I do not think Gingrich would win the race though. He seems too devisive and would be easily beaten by most of the Democratic candidates. I also do not think he will run. He has a real opportunity to be someone's VP (and a very effective one at that) if he stays out of the nomination process.