Still optimistic about Joe Biden

Along with the top 3, he did very well in the debate by the account of the media reveiwers. I am more and more impressed with Biden the more I see him.

He says things I beleive in.

He looks presidential.

I think the moving of most states dates to February 5th really helps smaller candidates and might bite the poll leaders in the butt.


Follow me for a second and I'll show you how Biden might win this thing. Every candidate has strengths and weaknesses.

Jan 14th.
Iowa.
Hillary struggles in the midwest where she is seen as a "feminazi" and a self absorbed harpy. Now expectation are that Obama takes Iowa. But what if Obama turns out to be suprisingly weak in the midwest? What if his strength in Illinois is just that? What if he continues to be somewhat uninspiring? This could turn into a 3 way heat between Obama the favorite, Edwards the challenger, and Biden, the campaign veteran. What if Iowa is up for grabs and Biden wins it collecting a good chunk of their delegates?

Biden gets media coverage from his unexpected upset leading up to Jan 19th.
Jan 19th.
Nevada.
Hillary should do better here, but this is not a blue state, so Hillary and Obama will be vulnerable here as well. There are a number of hispanics, so Governer Richardson could finish 3rd or even second. But again, Hillary and Biden know these primaries. A win or second would be huge in terms of momentum. I think these votes are going to be darned near split 4 ways anyway, although Hillary or the governor could suprise and run away with it. A second place finish would have the entire media rethinking the 2 horse race for the next 3 days.

Jan 22nd.
New Hampshire.
Word of mouth after the debate suggests New Hampshire saw it as 3 tiers: Hillary and Obama; Edwards and The Governor; and then Biden and the rest. The critics saw Biden as having a very strong debate, but the attendees were more taken with Hillary, Obama, and Richardson. Biden seems intent on working NH very hard and is well known in the area from previous campaigns. His efforts campaigning the state combined with momentum from the previous 2 primaries could deflate Edwards and even richardson a bit and have him displacing them as the alternate candidate and running a strong 3rd (say 20%) in NH. If New Hampsire turned to biden over Edwards and Richardson, both candidates might be willing to be brokered into a deal.

That would give a week of "wow, maybe Biden is legit talk" for the week leading up to Jan 29th. Now that would be a ton of free publicity for the public, and it could give rise to the kind of momentum that displaced Howard Dean. Biden is a well liked guy in the Democratic ranks. Hillary is respected, but liked? Maybe not so much. Obama suffers from the same problem as Dean did in 2004 as an outsider to the national party, but to a lesser degree. You won't see a thousand knives stabbing either in the back to help Biden like you did in 2004 helping Kerry, but you could see a couple people helping out. Chris Dodd, I could definitely see turning his people over to help Biden campaign. They seem to get along and are both small state guys trying to make the jump to higher political office. It works in Dodd's favor to try it. Perhaps a deal might be brokered with John Edwards at that point. "Deliver me a win in South Carolina and help me come in the top 3 in Florida and you will be my VP." At that point if things were not going well for edwards he might bite at that. Some money might come in on Biden as a flier. Knowing Biden, he would probably spend most of it immediately on advertising in Florida and South Carolina. I don't think Biden could talk Richardson out at that point as I expect Richardson to do well in Nevada and New Hampshire and be quite optimistic about Florida, but what would an offer of the Secretary of State job do for Richardson? I think that would be better than he'd get from Obama, but I think Richardson might hold out hope of a VP bid from Hillary.

Jan 29th.
The moment of truth.
South Carolina and Florida.
Can Edwards deliver South Carolina? I don't know if he could do it for him, let alone do it for someone else. I don't know if he could deliver 3rd in florida either as Richardson should do well with the hispanic vote, but after two weeks of watching Obama and Hillary struggle, the top tier support would be soft. I could see Hillary in the 25-30% range and Obama in the 15-20% range (it is the south afterall). With Dodd's and Edward's people on board I think they could be anywhere from 20-40% in South Carolina. If Richardson doesn't do as well as I anticipate in Nevada, he might bite on joining the Biden team. If so, that would put Biden as the #3 guy in Florida by process of elimination. If that happens, I could see Obama and Hillary splitting florida with Biden.

That would give Biden essentially the lion's share of Iowa (actual win+ Edward's), Nevada or a share of (his share and richardsons), 20% of New Hampshire (3rd), 40% of South Carolina (win), and 25% of Florida (3rd). That would probably give him say 12 + 10 + 6 + 20 + 47 = 95 of the 5 states' combined 297 delegates to clinton's say 4 + 10 +8 +15 + 49 = 86 and obama's say 6+3+ 8 +10 + 47 = 74 in those first 5 states and more importantly all of the momentum.

I'd say at that point the nomination would be decided if they corked my boy Biden's mouth. :)

Obama and Hillary are both running their campaigns based on where they are today. Hillary wants to be the front runner. Obama wants to stay close and be the only legitimate alternative. Both campaigns would collapse if faced with this scenario entering the week before the new Super Duper Tuesday. Hillary cannot manufacture instant momentum and Obama needs to remain distant and presidential looking--- getting down and dirty and practicing negative campaining won't work for him against a white candidate. (It is what it is, don't hate.)

Additionally, you have to understand Super Tuesday was designed to get a more moderate (and electable candidate). It hasn't really worked out. Super Duper Tuesday (what they are calling Super Tuesday with all the new states who have moved up their primaries) is going to severely curtail the east's ability to foist another guaranteed loser on the rest of the US. I think you'll see the rest of the US chosing a viable alternative to the candidate favored by the northeast a lot more frequently with the new system.

Clinton will win New York, but it isn't winner take all. Obama, IMO the california favorite, may still win California in this scenario, but that rest of those states could either be had or broken even on.

Super Duper Tuesday
5 February, 2008
Alabama (60)Alaska (18)Arizona (67)Arkansas(47)California(441)Colorado (71)Delaware (23)Georgia(104)Idaho (23)Illinois (185)Missouri (88)New Jersey (127)New Mexico (38)New York(280)North Carolina (110)North Dakota (21)Oklahoma (47)Tennessee (85)Utah (29)

Leaning Hillary = Arkansas(47)New Jersey (127)New York(280)

Leaning Obama = Arizona (67)California(441)Colorado (71)Illinois (185)Missouri (88)North Dakota (21)

Potentially leaning Biden = Alabama (60)Alaska (18)Delaware (23)Georgia(104)Idaho (23)New Mexico (38)North Carolina (110)Oklahoma (47)Tennessee (85)Utah (29)

When you consider the primaries are not "winner take all", there is a real opportunity for Biden if he can get some traction and work his way into the second tier in the early primaries.