I was struck by something watching the news this week. I saw that the Iraqi covernment is cutting ties with some high ranking politicians who are tight with Al Sadr. This came in at the same time US troops were making good progress through Sadr city.
My first thought? What gives? Sadr City is an area firmly controlled by one of the most powerful local militias in Iraq. Could the US army take Sadr City? Sure, but if that militia didn't go along with it, it would be one of the bigger battles in Iraq.
(Please be advised, I said "take", not "hold". Our military is one of the best thought out, best trained, and best funded militaries in the world. The strength of our military is our ability to take positions, but I think the size of our military does not lend itself to holding positions in Iraq. We can take an Iraqi anthill, but the cost of holding it is an extremely difficult political sell to the American public.)
By all reports, although Sadr City is not an Al Quida hangout, it may be the biggest ant hill in Iraq. But our troops are in and the fighting is nothing like what we were told to expect by reporters in Iraq...and with Al Sadr's people are being forced out of the upper level of government --- losing their voice in political issues --- shouldn't we be seeing more resistance, not less? What gives?
My second thought...A deal has to have been cut. Al Sadr lets the US do their thing for a while in Sadr city. The militia out there cools it and hides all their weapons. The Iraq government can present the image of working to meet Bush's public expectations for the surge, and Al Sadr gets his reward on the back end.
What would Al Sadr's reward be...? Total guess. I'd say part is by letting the US go into Sadr City early and "clear it" it may be less destructive to his people than having the troops go in there at the end when patience is sure to be at a minimum. Al Sadr probably has a deal with the Iraqi government that rewards him with more political power on far end and guarantees him that they will not actively seek him out at the behest of the US. He probably also has a deal with the US government either directly or through the Iraqi government that they will not take action against him if he lets the US do their thing in Sadr City for a while.
I wonder how the relative lack of media coverage to this sits with the white house...?
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