Iowa: Must-win state for Obama, Edwards, Republican Candidates

"Monday, September 24, 2007

In the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination, Hillary Clinton’s lead over Barack Obama is down a bit for the week ending September 23. But, for the sixteenth straight week, the former First Lady still leads by a solid double digit margin (see summary of weekly poll results). The somewhat smaller lead may reflect a modest tightening of the race or it may be nothing more than statistical noise.

The shift follows a busy week in which Clinton outlined a new health care proposal, Obama unveiled a middle-class tax proposal, and the Obama campaign team released a memo dismissing Clinton’s lead in the national polls and suggesting that the Obama team “has several structural advantages.”

Ultimately, the Obama campaign memo focuses on Iowa and confirms the analysis offered two weeks ago by Rasmussen Reports-- dislodging Clinton will require something to happen that makes Iowa a four-letter word in the Clinton household.

The memo makes three assertions about Iowa, one of which is indisputably true and two of which are speculative.

First, “caucuses are very difficult to poll.” This is true (and it’s the reason Rasmussen Reports has not yet polled for the Iowa caucus). While polling can give a reasonable sense of statewide sentiment or even sentiment among Democrats, caucuses don’t always reflect those sentiments. Very low turnouts, the importance of organization, and the unique nature of the caucus process make early projections difficult. In other words, nobody knows at this point what will happen in Iowa.

The memos other assertions attempt to portray Iowa as a must-win situation caucus for the frontrunner. It states that “Clinton will pay a severe price for not winning Iowa - national front runners always do.” Another comment is that the “importance of Iowa has only grown” as a tool for building momentum. Those points are certainly worth considering, but far from certain. Given the enormous coverage of the campaign, the reality of the Internet, and the frontloading of the primary schedule, you could make a convincing case for either side of the debate on the importance of Iowa in Election 2008.

As for Clinton, if she wins the Iowa caucus, there is nothing to stop her from getting the nomination. If she loses in Iowa, the caucus winner will have a brief moment to capitalize on the event and make his case. But, the Clinton campaign does possess something that none of her challengers can claim—a chance to win the nomination even if Iowa doesn’t work out as planned. She remains the most popular candidate among Democrats and is perceived to be the most electable. Clinton has a huge head start in New Hampshire and a solid demographic firewall due to her overwhelming support from women.

It is interesting that Obama has now adopted essentially the same tactical strategy as Mitt Romney is following in the GOP nominating contest-- win in the first real competition and hope that momentum will do the rest. And, that strategy confirms a reality that the Obama campaign memo forgot to mention… Iowa is a must-win state for the Senator from Illinois.

Rasmussen Reports conducts national telephone surveys on the Presidential race every night and releases updated data from our Presidential Tracking Poll by noon each day, Monday through Friday.

For the seven days ending September 23, 2007, Hillary Clinton earns 39% of the vote. Barack Obama is second at 25% followed by John Edwards at 14%. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson and Delaware Senator Joe Biden top the second-tier candidates at 4% followed by Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich at 2%. Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd and former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel each register 1% support. Ten percent (10%) of Likely Democratic Primary Voters are undecided (review history of weekly results).

The seven day results typically include interviews with more than 1,000 Likely Democratic Primary Voters. This includes both Democrats and those independents likely to vote in a Democratic Primary. In some state primaries, independent voters are allowed to participate in party primaries while in others they are excluded. The margin of sampling error for the weekly update is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Updates prior to July 16 were based upon four days of polling conducted the Monday through Thursday preceding release.

Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates. "