I made it into the times article.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/08/us/politics/08bloomberg.htm

"Obama’s Surge Deflates Forum and Talk of a Bloomberg Run

By RAYMOND HERNANDEZ and NICHOLAS CONFESSORE (NY TIMES)
Published: January 8, 2008

NORMAN, Okla. — He arrived here for what seemed like it could be a big moment. Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg, eyeing a third-party presidential bid, joined Republican and Democratic elders at a forum to denounce the extreme partisanship of Washington and plot how to influence the campaign.

But even as the mayor gathered on Monday with the seasoned Washington hands on the campus of the University of Oklahoma, the surging presidential campaign of Senator Barack Obama seemed to steal energy from the event and set off worry elsewhere among Mr. Bloomberg’s supporters.

Mr. Obama has stressed that he wants to move beyond gridlocked politics and usher in an era of national unity. A key organizer of the effort to draft Mr. Bloomberg for a presidential run acknowledged in an interview on Monday that that Mr. Obama’s rise could be problematic.

“Obama is trying to reach out to independent voters, and that clearly would be the constituency that Mike Bloomberg would go after,” said Andrew MacRae, who heads the Washington chapter of Draft Mike Bloomberg for President 2008. “An Obama victory does not make it impossible, but it certainly makes it more difficult.”

The event was organized by former Senator Sam Nunn, Democrat of Georgia, with former Senator David L. Boren, Democrat of Oklahoma. In the days leading up the event here, just outside Oklahoma City, Mr. Boren suggested that he would encourage Mr. Bloomberg to run if the major party nominees failed to heed the call for bipartisanship.

But several leading participants took pains to say that they had no intention of abandoning their own parties in the election. Some even cast Mr. Obama’s success as evidence that the nation was yearning for the type of leadership they were offering.

“I believe he is demonstrating, in the support he is getting, that the American people share this concern about excessive partisanship,” said Bob Graham, a Democratic former senator from Florida, who said he would support a Democrat for president.

Gary Hart, a Democrat from Colorado who also served in the Senate, said he intended to endorse one of the Democratic presidential candidates in the next 48 hours, though he declined to identify the candidate.

“I am a Democrat, and I will endorse a Democratic president,” he said. “There are no independent candidates. I won’t endorse a Republican.”

The forum attracted students, faculty members and some who said they were intrigued by a third party approach. Still, they were also taking notice of the momentum Mr. Obama has been gaining since his victory in the Iowa caucuses last week.

“I wonder about all this,” said [Politico] who drove to the event from Texas. [Politico] said he believed the eventual nominees would be Mr. Obama and Senator John McCain, and “that sort of steals a lot of thunder, since they’re the two more moderate candidates.”

Despite public denials that he plans to run, aides close to Mr. Bloomberg have been laying the groundwork for a candidacy, should he declare one.

Mr. Bloomberg kept a low profile at the forum. In response to a question during the panel discussion about the Iowa caucuses, Mr. Bloomberg did not talk about Mr. Obama or the Republican winner, Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, but said that perhaps the discussion the group was looking for had already begun.

“I hope that all the candidates say to themselves that the public is tired of the partisanship and the special interests, and if I’m going to get elected, I’ve got to stand up and say what I believe, face the big issues, hold myself accountable, and maybe you are seeing that.”

As he usually has in recent weeks, Mr. Bloomberg played down the notion that he would be a candidate himself, saying during the forum that the goal he shared with others at the conference was to be a “catalyst” for a discussion of the nation’s problems.

But even Mr. Bloomberg’s effort to influence the debate in the presidential campaign has hit challenges. The mayor recently paid out of his own pocket for ads in Iowa and New Hampshire newspapers demanding, on behalf of mayors concerned about gun violence, that candidates complete a questionnaire detailing their positions on gun issues.

The candidates were given until Jan. 2 to respond, but none of the campaigns complied, and Mr. Bloomberg and his colleagues have now pushed back the deadline.

People close to the mayor say that he will probably decide in March whether he will run, assuming that Democrats and Republicans have settled on their presumptive nominees. His aides have been researching the cumbersome process for starting an independent campaign, and a crucial date is March 5, when third-party candidates can begin circulating petitions to get a spot on the ballot in Texas.

Mr. Bloomberg would have to decide, among other things, whether there was an opening for a self-styled progressive centrist like him. Aides have said that he would be prepared to spend $1 billion.

Other participants at the forum included John Danforth, a Republican former senator from Missouri; Senator Chuck Hagel, Republican from Nebraska; William Cohen, former secretary of defense; and Christie Whitman, former governor of New Jersey and a Republican.

Like other participants, Mrs. Whitman has been seeking to distance herself from any third-party bid by Mr. Bloomberg. In a recent blog post on the Web site of the Republican Leadership Council, a centrist group of which she is co-chairwoman, Mrs. Whitman wrote, “While other attendees may assert their personal interest in a third party, I am a Republican and will remain one.”

Asked Monday whether she would support an independent presidential bid by Mr. Bloomberg or anyone else, Mrs. Whitman echoed those comments, saying, “I’m focused on the Republican Leadership Council.” "

Bloomberg Bipartisan Forum, January 7th at OU

I went to the Bi-partisan Forum at OU today. It was a little anti-climactic. The expectation was that Bloomberg would declare as a candidate, but he did not.

My impression was that he wants to see who the candidates will be first and that that is still very much in question. IMO, it looks like Obama and McCain although neither are stable front-runners. Obama says politically nieve things at in opportune times and McCain adopted the Iraq War. (Headline announces Obama says if he wins New Hampshire the race is over. A VERY stupid comment for a cnadidate who is reliant upon non-voters voting.)

I think McCain and Obama are consensus building moderates. That pulls the teeth from a Bloomberg candidacy.

That said, I had fun, the speakers were interesting and insighful, I was interviewed by a reporter from the NY times, and got to shake hands with a politician who's career accomplishments I admire--- Bob Graham, former Governor of Florida.

Iowa Primary results

http://abcnews.go.com/politics/elections/

"Estimated Delegates: 57Democratic Primary ResultsThursday, January 3
Real-time Race Results: Updated January 5, 2008 - 2:35 PM (all times Eastern Standard)
Precincts Reporting 100%
Candidate Votes Vote % Delegates Projected Winner
Obama 940 38% 18 Winner
Edwards 744 30% 16
Clinton 737 29% 16
Richardson 53 2% 0
Biden 23 1% 0
Uncommitted 3 0% 0
Dodd 1 0% 0
Gravel 0 0% 0
Kucinich 0 0% 0
.
Estimated Delegates: 40Republican Primary ResultsThursday, January 3
Real-time Race Results: Updated January 5, 2008 - 2:35 PM (all times Eastern Standard)
Precincts Reporting 98%
Candidate Votes Vote % Delegates Projected Winner
Huckabee 40,841 34% 30 Winner
Romney 29,949 25% 7
Thompson 15,904 13% 0
McCain 15,559 13% 0
Paul 11,817 10% 0
Giuliani 4,097 4% 0
Hunter 524 1% 0 "

You're Invited to a Bipartisan Forum, January 7th at OU

http://www.ou.edu/web/landing/Articles/bipartisan_forum_january.html

Information provided by the Office of the President.
UPDATED on January 4, 2008.


OU students, faculty and staff as well as members of the general public are cordially invited to attend a bipartisan forum of national political leaders at OU on Monday, January 7, 2008 from 11:00 a.m. to noon at the Catlett Music Center. Ticketing or advance reservations are not required. Seating will be on a first come, first serve basis and no advance ticketing or reservation is required.


As you know, the university has extended an open invitation to all presidential candidates in both parties and to those actively involved in the presidential election process to speak to our students, faculty and staff as well as members of the community. Thus far, one candidate, Governor Mitt Romney, has accepted our invitation and spoke at the university earlier this year. Other invitations remain outstanding, and we hope that candidates will continue to accept our invitation. Last spring, the university welcomed former President George H.W. Bush to campus for a discussion on the history of the American presidency with presidential historian David McCullough as well as Ken Duberstein, chief of staff for President Ronald Reagan, and Jack Valenti, chief of staff to President Lyndon B. Johnson. Another renowned presidential historian and leading author, Michael Beschloss, spoke to the OU family this fall on the qualities which have been important to successful presidencies. Through these events, the university advances its goal of educating our students about the presidency as an institution and national issues that they are likely to face as the future leaders of our nation as well as encouraging their civic involvement.


In furthering this goal, the university is pleased to announce that we will be host to a panel of leaders who will be potentially influential in producing increased national discussion of fundamental issues in the upcoming presidential election. The panel’s discussion will include ways in which our nation can end divisive partisan polarization, create bipartisanship, and bring the country together after conclusion of the 2008 election.


Those national leaders who are expected to participate in the panel include:


David Abshire, President of the Center for the Study of the Presidency

Michael Bloomberg, Mayor of New York City and founder of Bloomberg News

David Boren, Former U.S. Senator

Bill Brock, Former U.S. Senator

Bill Cohen, Former Secretary of Defense and U.S. Senator

Jack Danforth, Former U.S. Senator

Susan Eisenhower, Chairman Emeritus, The Eisenhower Institute

Bob Graham, Former U.S. Senator

Chuck Hagel, U.S. Senator

Gary Hart, Former U.S. Senator

Jim Leach, Former Member of the U.S. House of Representatives

Sam Nunn, Former U.S. Senator

Edward Perkins, Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations

Chuck Robb, Former U.S. Senator

Christine Todd Whitman, Former New Jersey Governor

For more information about the bipartisan forum, please contact the Office of the President at (405) 325-3916 during normal business hours. Members of the media who plan to cover the forum should contact Catherine Bishop at (405) 620-1544 or cbishop@ou.edu to receive advance credentialing.

Biden and Dodd are out; Jesus and Oprah deliver; What else do the results mean?

So lets look back at my predictions and what actually happened.

predictions
REP
Romney to edge Huckabee who has been revealed to be a bit of a jerk.
Guiliani & Thompson to do very poorly.
Ron Paul to do suprisingly well. Say 10 %.

Dems
Obama to edge hillary or Edwards.
Biden to suprise and finish 3rd based on his foreign policy experience and the situation in Pakistan.

Actual

http://abcnews.go.com/politics/elections/

"Estimated Delegates: 57Democratic Primary ResultsThursday, January 3
Real-time Race Results: Updated January 5, 2008 - 2:35 PM (all times Eastern Standard)
Precincts Reporting 100%
Candidate Votes Vote % Delegates Projected Winner
Obama 940 38% 18 Winner
Edwards 744 30% 16
Clinton 737 29% 16
Richardson 53 2% 0
Biden 23 1% 0
Uncommitted 3 0% 0
Dodd 1 0% 0
Gravel 0 0% 0
Kucinich 0 0% 0
.
Estimated Delegates: 40Republican Primary ResultsThursday, January 3
Real-time Race Results: Updated January 5, 2008 - 2:35 PM (all times Eastern Standard)
Precincts Reporting 98%
Candidate Votes Vote % Delegates Projected Winner
Huckabee 40,841 34% 30 Winner
Romney 29,949 25% 7
Thompson 15,904 13% 0
McCain 15,559 13% 0
Paul 11,817 10% 0
Giuliani 4,097 4% 0
Hunter 524 1% 0 "


Huckabee joins Pat Robertson as a religious nutjob who swept through Iowa with hurricane force. Huckabee has a slim chance that he may not implode like Robertson. He is a very personable guy who spouts crazy in his free time and the next primaries will have very little time between each one, so someone who makes a good first impression can gain a lot of momentum quickly. That said, his political and religious views won't sell in New Hampshire (Primary #2). He could be seen as possibly irrelevant entering the Michigan Primary (Primary #3), which may really blunt any momentum he could have in South Carolina (Primary #4). On the positive side, having Ed Rollins on board guarantees he will meet his potential.

Romney started setting expectations that he would not win Iowa last week (I didn't know that) and that second was fine. That was IMO a political mistake. His people should have gotten agressive with Huckabee's past and his general cruel remarks to others. Romney easily could have cut the margin of victory in half or won if he hadn't written off Iowa. He also could have had Huckabee emerging as victorious, but permanently dogged by the Arkansas rape/murder scandal and not viable nationally, but he let him off the hook. Lesson to be learned, Mr. Romney, just because you might lose a race, doesn't mean you can't gain something of value by fighting. It is well known how much time and money Romney put into Iowa. A soft finish was not acceptable considering that. Now Romney has negative momentum entering a New Hampshire race that McCain is poised to win. It was fine for Romney to finish second in Iowa, but not by almost 10 percent. Romney could very well implode.

Thompson and McCain did suprisingly well drawing 13% of the vote each . Thompson lives for another week and McCain has momemtum going into New Hampshire where he is a strong second to the faltering Romney.

The radical Ron Paul has shown enough support to actually be entering VP consideration. Weird how the world works.

Guliani did much worse than I thought. He was expecting to get his 10-15% and fight another day. 4% when you were expecting 15% is to carry negative momentum into the next primary. He is in real trouble. He could implode with an unexpectedly bad showing in New Hampshire. He isn't likeable, and if he starts faltering, people will pile on.

Duncan Hunter should drop out of the race. He is done and unlike Ron Paul or Tom Tancredo he has no "issue to push".

On the Democratic side, WOW, what a night. The fact that Dem voter turnout for the primary (230K) was almost DOUBLE last election (124K)is hugely telling. For a long time now, Democratic analysts have smugly said that the Dems like their feild of candidates. I have long though that was overstated and that when push came to shove, one of the anti-hillary candidates would implode. Push came to shove last night and all 3 candidates drew record numbers. Hillary clinton's "disappointing" 29% third place finish would have netted her 54% of the vote in 2004. That is a landslide win!

The facts are Hillary drew her votes for who she is and should take pride in that. The troubling part of this is that her negative numbers made her vulnerable in this primary and would again do so in the national election --- especially against a likeable religious nutjob like Huckabee. This primary basically underscored "the problem with Hillary" for the Dem insiders. Hillary may deliver record numbers to the polls for her, but the more successful she is, ther more motivated the anti-Hillary voters will be to keep her out.

It looks VERY dark for Hillary. A big loss to Obama was possible and probably there was a contingency plan. Losing to Edwards as well changes the equation. The idea of Hillary as the inevitable candidate is gone forever. Hillary will have a dogfight from here on out and she does poorly in those, allowing her abrasive and evasive sides out, which reinforce the negative views people have of her. Additionally, she has already squandered all of her Obama "mud". I think she may be done.

Edwards ran a brilliant campaign on class struggle and being the anti-Hillary. Both campaign groups should look at that. Forget Obama for a second and look at the race as Hillary vs. Anti-Hillary (Edwards). Anti-hillary won like 69K vs. 67K. That should tell you all you need to know about edwards and clinton. That would be a high turnout in Iowa for normal but a heated race. These two candidates scooped up all of the established Dem Vote. And the anti-Hillary won.

Obama may not like him, but Edwards makes a world of sense as his VP today. He has really come into his own, is from the right region/background to compliment Obama, and as proven last election, he can handle a debate and attack a presidential candidate. All that said, Edwards is not done yet. He has 2-3 Primaries to make his case before he runs out of money. If the politically nieve Obama trips up in New Hampshire and Hillary continues to struggle, the door could open up again for Edwards and he could get some real traction.

Both candidates scraped up every vote they could, but the numbers don't lie, Double the turnout? Obama wins with women by 5%? This was the Goddess of Harpo gently touching Iowa on the map and the Obama phone support crew diligently recording every touch. Oprah is a political dynamo. Obama should have 2 people on his VP want list. Oprah, then Edwards.

Which finally leads me to the rest of the Democratic feild. Biden and Dodds rightly bailed. Dodds has been dead for months, but getting less than 1% finally opened his eyes. Biden (and a lot of prognosticators including myself) felt he would have a strong shouwing in Iowa ---probably in the teens. A lot of his strategy was based on proving himself viable in Iowa and making a move in New Hampshire. Without the first, the second became impossible. I am sad to see him get out this early because I think he was the one democrat capable of crushing a Republican candidate with criticism. (He did it to Guiliani earlier in the race. When he publically stated that Guiliani was running on 9/11 he cut off the Mayor's only means of positive momentum. This is the only time I have ever seen a fringe candidate take down an opponent's front runner.) I think Biden ultimately did little to show a domestic agenda and that killed him.

Gravel is in it to the bitter end. He has a message, but is not sending it clearly. Kucinich will probably get out in a few more races as he realizes that you can't get a race to adopt your platforms, at best you can hope that the race seizes on one issue you treasure like Tancredo was able to accomplish with his presidency. Richardson is in a similar boat to Kucinich and Biden. He hasn't seen what Biden did, that the big 3 have choked out all the sunlight.

"Iowa By the Numbers" by Tim Dickinson

http://www.rollingstone.com/nationalaffairs/index.php/2008/01/04/iowa-by-the-numbers/

"Four statistics blew me away tonight:

1) Obama beat Hillary among women voters 35 to 30 percent.
2)Amid record Democratic turnout, as many people under 30 showed up to caucus as those over 65.
3) Sixty percent of the GOP electorate in Iowa were born-again Christians.
4) Rudy Giuliani finished with a mere 4,013 votes, in sixth place, with less than half of the support of Ron Paul.

Taking them in order:

One:
Hillary lost tonight to Barack Obama by 8 points — a margin just as wide as Mitt Romney catastrophic shortfall against Mike Huckabee.

And Obama beat her eight ways to Sunday. He edged her out among Democrats 32/31, and cleaned her clock among independents (44/17) and wayward Republicans (41/10). He beat her among people making less than $15,000 (37/30) and more than $100,000 (41/19). He beat her among health-care voters (34/30) and suburban voters (30/25).

Most astounding however, he beat her among her core supporters, women, by five points. What more can I say than — in a night of mind boggling statistics — that that’s the stat of the night.

A black man did this. In a state that’s 96 percent white. This is truly a historic night in America.

Two:
The turnout on the Democratic side was unreal. It soared from 124,000 in 2004 to 230,000 in 2008. And that’s all about the man who won.

Obama’s been drawing record crowds from San Francisco to Des Moines — but there was always the question of whether he could produce a similar effect among real live voters.

He did so in a way that no one predicted. 57 percent of the caucus goers tonight had never caucused before. Most impressive: As many people under thirty showed up as senior citizens.

That’s fucking nuts is what that is. That’s the Rock the Vote political wet dream that never ever comes true… actually coming true.

What this portends for Obama as a national candidate is something truly special. He’s not only proven that he can draw the support of independents and open-minded Republicans. He’s the one guy who can make the Democratic pie higher, bringing new, unlikely voters into the fold. If he could replicate this kind of support among young people in a general election, it’s game over.

Three:
The Religious Right has found their candidate. The evangelical vote in the Republican caucus is usually 40 percent. Tonight it was 60 percent.

I give Mike Huckabee a lot of credit. He’s run the kind of grassroots campaign that’s not supposed to be possible in this era. Outspent 15:1, his earthy, inclusive plain-spoken authenticity won hearts and minds — and his faith-based network of supporters turned out in droves, beating back the best organization money can buy.

With Romney effectively out of the way, I’m not sure anybody else can stop this guy. Certainly not in South Carolina, where, if the churched vote behaves the way they did tonight, he’ll clobber a John McCain, no matter what happens in New Hampshire.

Four:
Rudy Giluliani is done. His slot — the maverick warmonger — is going to be filled by John McCain by the time Florida comes around. He’s executing the most amazingly misguided electoral strategy I can remember. Bravo and good riddance.

Closing thoughts
Obama scored two huge victories tonight. He not only popped Clinton’s aura of inevitability, he also beat Edwards roundly enough to establish himself as the only true anti-Clinton. So not only is Clinton wounded heading into New Hampshire, but the ABC (anyone but Clinton) vote has found its standard bearer — and his name isn’t John Edwards.

Which is all to say that even if Clinton makes a miraculous recovery in the next five days, I think enough of Edwards’ vote is going to migrate to Obama that it’s not going to make a difference. New Hampshire is his to lose.

And fond goodbyes…
Part of me, here, is going to miss the grand patrician stylings of Chris Dodd, here.

And Joe Biden, I think I’ll miss you most of all. "

Biden and Dodd Leave the Race By Shailagh Murray

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/01/04/biden_and_dodd_leave_the_race.html?hpid=topnews

"DES MOINES -- The two veteran lawmakers of the Democratic race, Sens. Joseph Biden (Del) and Christopher Dodd (Conn.), abandoned their candidacies after poor showings in last night's Iowa caucuses.

Biden, who was elected to the Senate in 1972 and serves as chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, had hoped large crowds in recent weeks would help earn at least a fourth-place showing. But that support failed to materialize, and Biden netted only about 2 percent of delegates, about half what recent polls had predicted.

"There is nothing sad about tonight. We are so incredibly proud of you all," Biden told his supporters. "So many of you have sacrificed for me and I am so indebted to you. I feel no regret."

Dodd, who chairs the Senate Banking Committee and is serving his fifth term, posted a worse showing, registering just .02 percent of Democratic support.

"Let me assure you, we are not ending this race with our heads hanging but our heads held high," he told about 100 supporters at a rally in Des Moines. "I am not going anywhere."

Dodd moved his wife and two young daughters to Des Moines and built a sizable state-wide organization, including 13 offices and a large payroll of campaign professionals. Biden also blitzed the state, scooping up endorsements from state and local officials, and offering crowds intricate discourses on foreign policy.

But in a year when voters said they were seeking change, both veteran senators struck Iowans as a little too familiar, fixtures of a Washington establishment that had grown stale from years of gridlock and partisan infighting.

Biden's presidential bid was his second, having dropped out of the 1988 race before the Iowa caucuses."